Cal Poly Pomona External Environmental Scan, 2007

Executive Summary

This report provides an external environmental scan for California State Polytechnic University, Pomona. It is intended to supplement the results of a comprehensive, campus internal review of the strengths and weaknesses of all degree-granting programs. This report aims to inform the university’s planning process for:

setting academic program priorities
assisting enrollment management in its academic support function, and
assessing the impact of the external environment on general university operations.

These projections do not consider budget reductions being proposed in the State as of January 2008, which may significantly impact issues such as enrollment projections, fiscal outlook, etc.

Overview of Report

The scan encompasses six sectors of the external environment focusing on the following aspects:

Social: national, statewide, and regional (i.e., Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties) population and demographic (race/ethnicity, sex, age 18 to 24) trends and projections to 2015-16
Educational: national, state, and regional higher education enrollment demand, and projections to 2015 of Cal Poly Pomona first-time freshmen, new undergraduate transfers and graduate/post baccalaureate students
Economic: forecasts of wage and employment growth in Southern California by broad field of study (college unit) and academic programs offered at Cal Poly Pomona, including recommendations for program funding
Financial: fiscal outlook for state support of public higher education; national and state trends in private, voluntary support
Technological: models, principles, features and examples of good practice in designing “learning space” environments
Regulatory: eight key CSU systemwide program initiatives: Access to Excellence; CSU Math and Science Initiative; Facilitating Graduation; Student Activities; Emergency Management Program; Information Security Initiative; Accessible Technology Initiative; and Voluntary System of Accountability

Key Findings and Results

The nation’s overall population is steadily growing and becoming increasingly non-White and multi-racial. Hispanic is the fastest growing group, followed by Asian/Pacific Islander and other non-White ethnic groups.
The age group of 18 to 24 in the nation’s population is expected to decline between 2011 and 2016.
The population of California now estimated at 37.7 million will grow to 42.1 million by 2016. By 2016 Hispanic will comprise almost 40 percent of the state population, surpassing White as the largest group in the state.
The rate of growth among 18 to 24 year olds in California begins to slow dramatically in 2011. White, Asian/Pacific Islander, and Black decline as a percentage of the 18 to 24 year old population; Hispanic makes significant gains proportionately.
The population in the Cal Poly Pomona, four-county geographic service area (Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino) is forecast to grow about 22 percent (3.7 million) between 2000 and 2016. Riverside and San Bernardino counties will grow by 70 percent and 40 percent, respectively.
The regional four-county (Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino) demographic trends by race/ethnicity and age 18 to 24 mirror those taking place at the national and state level.
The next decade will experience rising enrollment demand in our nation’s four- and two-year institutions for both undergraduate and graduate students, and full-time and part-time students.
The nation’s colleges and universities will become increasingly non-White.
Females will continue to enroll in the nation’s colleges at higher rates than men at both undergraduate and graduate levels.
Undergraduate enrollment demand in California public higher education is forecast to increase by 22.1 percent (362,000) for California Community Colleges (CCC), 14.5 percent (23,600) for University of California (UC), and 12.5 percent (42,800) for California State University (CSU) between 2006 and 2015.
Graduate student enrollment is expected to increase by 33.4 percent (24,100) in the CSU and 13.2 percent (4,700) in the UC.
Due to declining numbers of California public high school graduates in the state and region, Cal Poly Pomona first-time freshmen are projected to decline about 200 - 300 students (7.3 percent) between 2007 and 2016. First-time freshmen are expected to become increasingly Hispanic.
Cal Poly Pomona new undergraduate transfers are projected to increase by about 150 - 200 students (12.5 percent) between 2006 and 2015. The typical student will be demographically similar to fall 2006 new undergraduate transfers: 55 percent male, 45 percent female; 32 percent Asian, 4 percent Black, 33 percent Hispanic and 31 percent White.
Cal Poly Pomona graduate students are projected to increase about 140 - 200 students (33.3 percent) between 2006 and 2015. The typical student will be demographically similar to fall 2006 new graduate students: 62 percent female, 38 percent male; 25 percent Asian, 7 percent Black, 30 percent Hispanic, and 39 percent White.
The average SAT scores for students enrolled in Cal Poly Pomona top feeder high schools (N=93) are: 978 (Total), 502 (Math), and 477 (English); SAT scores of the top feeder high schools with average SAT total scores over 1000 (N=33) have remained stable (not shown improvement) over the past three years.
Cal Poly Pomona top feeder high schools is comprised of: Asian (13 percent), Black (6 percent), Hispanic (54 percent), White (23 percent), Other (3 percent)
The top 10 college destinations of students from Cal Poly Pomona’s top feeder high schools with average SAT scores above 1000 are: UC Irvine; CSU Fullerton; UC Riverside; UC San Diego; UC Los Angeles; CSU Long Beach; CSU San Bernardino; UC Berkeley; and CSU San Diego.
In the Five County Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) comprised of MSAs for Los Angeles-Long Beach, Orange County, Riverside-San Bernardino, and Ventura MSAs there were appreciable weekly and hourly wage gains between 2000 and 2005 of both college graduates and students with a graduate degree in all broad fields of study offered by the university: Agriculture, Education, Engineering, Environmental Design, Science, Hospitality, Business, and Letters, Art and Science.
The Five County MSA total employment is projected to grow 14.5 percent between 2004 and 2014. The highest growth industries include: retail trade; real estate; professional and business services; education and health services; and accommodation and food services. Employment is expected to shrink in manufacturing and farming.
The fields with the largest projected growth in the Five County MSA are: Education (22 percent); Science (24 percent); Hospitality (19 percent); Letters, Arts and Sciences (13 percent); and Engineering (13 percent).
Detailed data on the fastest and slowest growing occupations in the Five County MSA that correspond to Cal Poly Pomona broad fields of study are presented in Chapter 4 (Tables 4.5, 4.6 and 4.7).
Funding recommendations based on employment growth are made for 39 academic programs: 11 enhanced; 14 maintenance; 14 reduced (see Chapter 4, Table 4.8).
California faces a budget shortfall in 2007-08 of $10 billion primarily due to declining home process, high energy costs, and a number of overly optimistic assumptions about revenues and expenditures. The Governor has recently ordered all state agencies to prepare to cut spending by 10 percent.
Estimated annual state spending for California prisons in 2007-08 is 55 percent more than for the CSU and UC and increases to 64 percent in 2011-12.
The California Legislative Analyst Office (LAO) forecasts between 2006 and 2011-12:
- Slower but still positive economic growth through mid-2007-08
- Declining operating budget shortfall to $1.4 billion
- Continued healthy growth in California’s high tech industry (software development, computer systems and design, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and information-related industries (motion pictures, broadcasting, publishing)
- An average annual rate of 4 percent funding for the CSU, reaching $3.31 billion
- Annual enrollment growth between 1.4 percent and 1.8 percent
- An increase of $130 million in the General Fund cost of implementing the Compact with the UC and CSU
The CSU is expected to continue to receive a declining share of state appropriations primarily due to rising costs of health care and corrections.
For the past 16 years voluntary support has accounted for less than 10 percent of institutional expenditures.
National surveys indicate that corporate giving increased in the past three years in total dollars and giving per employee.
Alumni support increased due to an increase in the value of the average gift, although alumni participation decreased continuing a trend over the past several years.
Parents, alumni, corporate, religious and community organizations all increased their support for public masters institutions over the past five years. Corporate and foundation support have been inconsistent. Overall the five-year trend in support for public masters institutions is a generally positive one.
The number of California foundations increased 48 percent between 1999 and 2004. Foundation giving increased 40 percent during this period (21 percent adjusted for inflation).
Health and education are the two top funding areas for grant dollars from California foundations.
A five-year trend in voluntary support for CSU current operations shows increases from parents, alumni, and foundations. However, gifts from corporations, other individuals, and other organizations have been shrinking.
The concept of ‘learning space’ provides a new way of thinking about designing teaching and student learning environments.
Cal Poly Pomona is expected to fulfill the requirements of several key CSU systemwide program initiatives over the next several years.

Conclusions

The key findings and results of the scan suggest the following opportunities and challenges for Cal Poly Pomona to consider and address in its current planning process.

Opportunities

Develop and/or strengthen ties with civic, business, and educational leaders (especially within the Hispanic community) of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, Southern California’s two fastest growing counties
Ensure that the university remains open and accessible to the growing numbers of underserved and/or underrepresented prospective students (especially Hispanic) in the Cal Poly Pomona’s geographic service area
Bring balance and diversity to male-dominant academic programs/majors by increasing the overall numbers of female students in the university and encouraging and supporting women to develop their fullest potentials in the fields of science, math, and engineering
Enhance and expand graduate academic programs to accommodate a projected increase in graduate enrollment
Allocate additional resources where enrollment growth is expected (i.e., graduate level)
Meet the future demand in the Southern California region for high growth jobs in education, science, hospitality, and engineering
Strengthen academic programs by allocating additional resources to programs with the highest job growth potential: Architecture; Computer Science; Finance, Real Estate, Law; Hospitality; Industrial Engineering; Management; MBA; Psychology; Single Subject and Multi-Subject; Sociology; and Theatre
Expand and strengthen teacher preparation program in STEM disciplines
Re-design, improve, and promote the use of space through integration of diverse technologies to engage students in active learning

Challenges

Maintain a sound financial footing in the face of a weakening national and state economy and possible declining state support
Increase the university’s ability to compete with UC and other regional institutions for high achieving students
Reconcile or balance the campus goal to provide access to growing numbers of students who may need remedial instruction in math and English while attempting to attract larger numbers of highly qualified students to the university
Augment financial resources to support the operating budget of the university during a period of slower economic growth in the nation and state
Respond effectively in meeting the accountabilities set forth in CSU program initiatives within tightening budget constraints
Establish and meet enrollment planning FTES targets (avoid negative budget consequences of falling under or exceeding targets)

Cal Poly Pomona is entering a period in which there will be significant challenges. Growing financial needs of the campus will collide with a potential decline in state funding. With the potential for declining state support, the university may find it difficult to provide adequate resources to deserving academic programs to make a real difference in program quality. The goal to attract and enroll the best and brightest students from feeder high schools may be frustrated by demographic trends of increasing numbers of under prepared college-going students. The possibilities for developing adequate funding to grow enrollments and expand degree productivity will be confronted by gentle slowing and/or shrinking enrollment demand. The ability to set and meet campus budgeted enrollment targets will be more challenging given that the fuel that has historically generated enrollment growth (i.e., first-time freshmen) will be weaker. Success in developing alternative sources of revenue to support university operations may be limited by a weakening national and state economy. Allocating additional resources to comply with largely unfunded CSU mandates will further strain the university’s budget. Yet within these crosscurrents, successful students with undergraduate or graduate degrees can expect to find good paying jobs in Southern California jobs assuming the state economy continues to grow; the university can continue to serve an increasingly diverse student population, provide greater educational opportunities for women, and make a difference for growing numbers of Hispanic students who are striving to improve their life prospects; and there are opportunities to nourish and expand graduate programs. Cal Poly Pomona can exploit these opportunities and meet these challenges with clear institutional vision and direction, ongoing assessment of its internal strengths and weaknesses combined with regular monitoring of the external environment, and constant revisiting and adjusting of its action plans accordingly.